High, Dry and Waiting

They're still riding bikes at Tahoe.

Roses are framing houses now sporting Christmas lights in Santa Rosa, and tomato plants seem to have entered a second season in some Sonoma County gardens.

For water officials throughout Northern California, and sports enthusiasts in the mountains, the fall so far has brought a troubling conclusion:

No rain, no snow, and not much on the horizon.

"It's gorgeous. It's not what we want," said Jessica Michaan, at Homewood Ski Resort at Lake Tahoe.

It's been a month since any measurable rain has fallen in the North Bay, leaving a total of only 3.39 inches to date in Santa Rosa, compared with a year-to-date average of 7.07 inches.

Last year, 4.29 inches had fallen, also below average.

"We're still hopeful for a wet winter," said Daniel Muelrath, Santa Rosa's water conservation program coordinator.

The North Bay's wettest months typically are January and February.

"There's no need to panic yet," said Steve Anderson, meteorologist wtih the National Weather Service, because rain will come eventually.

"How much is a whole different story," he acknowledged.

Computer models show no rain, and several sunny days at least through the next two weeks, meteorologists said.

"There's a pretty strong ridge on top keeping the train of storms moving toward the northwest rather than into California," said Andrew Ulrich, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.

"But things can change rapidly," he said, trying to sound hopeful.

Early Wednesday, it looked like a storm was shaping up for the area for the middle of next week. But by Wednesday afternoon it had fallen apart, Ulrich said.

A longer view of the 2008-2009 rain year has weather experts predicting near-average rainfall for Northern and Central California this winter, but lower-than-average rain for Southern California, said Amy Norris of the state Department of Water Resources.

"Near normal will be good, but some are still saying we'll need a lot more than normal to really make up for the deficit from previous years," Norris said.

Weather observers noted spring 2008 was the driest on record.

"It would be better to have an above average year," Norris said.

An under-performing rain year could pressure local governments and water districts that called for voluntary and required water conservation during the past two years to meet the needs of both people and fish.

"We absolutely need a fair amount of rain and we need rain late in the spring to provide sufficient water for the fish migration," said Glen Wright, deputy director of water resources for Santa Rosa who also works with the Sonoma County Water Advisory Council.

Lake Sonoma, at the north end of the county, currently has about 189,000 acre-feet. Normal is 250,000 acre-feet.

"We're doing OK, but we need rain. We want rain," said Mike Jones, dam operator with the Army Corps of Engineers.

At Lake Mendocino on Wednesday, the lake storage level was 80,451 acre-feet. The maximum capacity is 122,500 acre-feet.

At Tahoe, skiers are crowding onto single slopes of man-made snow at Boreal and Heavenly ski resorts.

At Homewood resort and others, officials are struggling to determine when to announce an opening day. They're now hoping for enough snow to give them a strong Christmas holiday run.

"It's really open, the opening date," said Homewood's Michaan. "We don't have any snow. The forecast is not looking good."

A hillside of brown grass and rocks still covers much of Homewood's front slope.

"'What do you have open right now?'" callers are asking, Michaan said. "They think we have a lot of snow up here. They're very surprised when we don't have anything. It's all grass."

On the flip side, it's been a long, beautiful fall here and in the Sierra.

"There's still some riding going on in the Tahoe area," said Barry Edwards, manager of Olympic Bike Shop in Tahoe City.

Bike paths aren't blocked by snow, and afternoon temperatures around the lake have reached into the high 60s. Edwards had several bike renters over the long Thanksgiving weekend.

Ski rentals, however, are down, unless the skier is headed south to Mammoth where the snow is thick and all-covering, said Gary Kean at Dave's Skis and Boards in Tahoe City.

"The reality is mid-December (snow) is usually man-made. The big dump starts to happen around Christmas, the first of January," Kean said.

"This is pretty normal," he said of the dry December. "Everybody just panics."

You can reach Staff Writer Randi Rossmann at 521-5412 or randi.rossmann@pressdemocrat.com.